Exactly How Much Are Labour Freaking Out Right Now?

Lead image: Anthony Devlin/PA Archive

Looking to the past, 1931, 1935 and 1983 were huge Labour defeats, with the party almost completely wiped out. This time around, Labour could be facing an even worse electoral defeat. Going on the polling we've seen, 2017 looks set to become a major historic low.

The reasons for this are obvious: this is an election about Brexit, and Labour has no clear position on the issue. Normally members would look to leadership for the official line, but few members of the parliamentary party support the leader – and with good reason: Theresa May's approval rating is at 57 percent, Corbyn's is at 13 percent. Labour is simply not prepared for this vote. The Prime Minister's call for a snap election on the 8th of June has unleashed mayhem on the opposition. And that's just what she had in mind.

The feeling in the party is downbeat. "People just feel very sad. It feels like a bunch of good MPs are going to pay the price for someone else's mad politics," one moderate Labour insider tells me.

Others agree. "There's a feeling of extreme trepidation," says Luke Akehurst, former NEC member. "The most talented moderate MPs are in marginal seats and the price won't be paid by Jeremy Corbyn and his 21,000 majority in Islington."

For many in the party it's each to their own. Siobhain McDonagh, Labour MP for Mitcham and Morden, says because it came as such a surprise people aren't looking to the central Labour Party organisation for help. "We know that they won't be prepared," she says. "Normally you see a general election coming from a mile away. People are just going to stand on their own record in their constituencies. Things aren't necessarily in place elsewhere."

The unnamed moderate insider agrees. "Most MPs will be looking after themselves especially if their seat is in any way marginal," he says.

Even the manifesto is of little interest to anybody. Despite Corbyn's recent announcements of free school meals for primary school pupils, a £10-an-hour minimum wage and higher carers' allowance, which are likely to form the backbone of a new manifesto, attitudes towards it are nonplussed. "They can put what they want in because they're going to lose anyway," says a former candidate speaking on condition of anonymity. "It can have as many fantasy policies as they want. Perhaps we'd put up a fight over nuclear deterrence, but if they want to make impossible pledges, who cares, really? It could be quite an entertaining document."

Others agree that it's unlikely anyone will try to stop Corbyn from having the kind of manifesto he wants. Although there is a formal process to go through, which includes the shadow cabinet and the NEC, those in the know say the manifesto is the least of anyone's worries. "There's no point having a very left wing Labour leader and no left wing policy stands," says Akehurst. "Tom Watson is on record saying Corbyn will own this manifesto."

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Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University, is equally scathing of its usefulness and thinks that the manifesto is likely to have few concrete, practical, costed policies, but lots of windy rhetoric about the terrible Tories. "It will likely focus on the socialist paradise that a Corbyn government would usher in," he says.

Many are wondering who would want to run the campaign. In 2015, even David Axelrod – Barack Obama's chief campaign adviser, who signed on as a consultant to the Labour campaign for an astronomical fee – wasn't good enough to improve Ed Miliband's prospects. "Unless they find someone off Bernie's campaign, I don't see who they would get this time," says one unnamed former candidate. "Plus, there is concern around Jeremy and his stamina and ability to deal with stress. He's snappy and it will be interesting to see how he handles two months of intense media scrutiny."

Labour has confirmed that all sitting Labour MPs will be automatically reselected, but already a number are said to be considering standing down before the contest. Tom Blenkinsop announced his decision to not recontest his seat of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland for Labour, and the Hull West and Hessle veteran Alan Johnson has also said he'll quit. Iain Wright, Commons business committee chair, and Pat Glass, former shadow Europe minister, are also among MPs not contesting seats. Despite this, Bale thinks we're unlikely to see a mass exodus. "MPs are surprisingly good at deluding themselves that they're likeable and they can withstand the unpopularity of their party, so we shouldn't overstate how many people will give up without a fight," he says.

This period of uncertainty looks set to continue. The party won't know for sure who is standing until the 2nd of May, when all constituencies will be expected to select their candidates, with the sitting MP or candidate from last time being given first refusal. If not, the NEC will then shortlist and select candidates, so, contrary to Corbyn's wishes, there will be no role for the local party.

For now, at least, there might be a period of calm in the party. Although no one would say it's a good thing to have to fight a general election with the kind of opinion poll ratings the Labour party is dealing with at the moment, when it comes to internal turmoil in the party, at least it brings everything to a head. Either Corbyn is going to be elected as Prime Minister or it shows his political project doesn't work and they can look at another way of getting the Labour party into power.

Despite this initial feeling of negativity, in some respects the party is in good shape. The obvious benefit of the large increase in membership under Corbyn is that party finances are reasonably stable. "They've got a fair amount of money, but some may be reluctant to spend it on what is obviously a lost cause – and it won't be as much as the Conservatives," says Bale.

Boots on the ground can also make a difference in very close contests. Party membership under Corbyn reached 554,000 last year, but numbers are falling rapidly and there has been an unusual number of lapsed payments, let alone actual feet on the street. Some regular campaigners, such as Camden councillor Maryam Eslamdoust, are confident that grassroots canvassing will be a success. "We're the biggest party in Europe and have the infrastructure in place for the biggest mass general election campaign that the country has seen," she says.

The best case scenario for Labour is, as Tony Blair suggests, one in which voters back any candidate who opposes Brexit and the fight crosses party lines. More likely, say others, is that the party will lose a lot of seats but not quite as many as polling suggests. "Anything could happen," says Andrew Blick, lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History at King's College London. "It's hard to predict."

This time, even the pollsters are remaining cautious. "The role that UKIP and the Lib Dems' voters will play in this election could affect seat numbers quite drastically," says James Crouch, from the polling team at Opinium. "The parliamentary arithmetic is very difficult to gauge."

@tessreidy